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Through games of Mar 11, 2018.


Bethune Cookman

Conference:MEAC
Expected RPI:288.0
Current RPI:288
Expected SOS:351
Current SOS:351
Current Record:16-14
Expected Record:16-14
Current Conf Record:12-5
Expected Conf Record:12-5
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:15-11
Current OOC Record:4-9
Expected OOC Record:4-9
Expected OOC RPI:304
Expected OOC SOS:343



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-14288.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Bethune Cookman.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-13UT Rio Grande Valley (229.0)WACA92-74L0%0.0
11-16North Texas (235.0)CUSAA90-78L0%0.0
11-19Georgia Tech (161.0)ACCA65-62L0%0.0
11-21Grambling St. (249.0)SWACH87-78W100%0.0
11-30Jacksonville (286.0)ASunA66-77W100%0.0
12-2Florida Atlantic (275.0)CUSAA93-75L0%0.0
12-8Boston University (212.0)PatH87-90L0%0.0
12-12Cal Poly (305.0)BWH67-53W100%0.0
12-14South Florida (278.0)AmerA83-63L0%0.0
12-16Kennesaw St. (301.0)ASunA81-74L0%0.0
12-19Washington (71.0)P12A106-55L0%0.0
12-22Washington St. (179.0)P12A86-58L0%0.0
1-3South Carolina St. (331.0)MEACH86-80W100%0.0
1-6Howard (339.0)MEACA87-92W100%0.0
1-8Maryland Eastern Shore (346.0)MEACA84-89W100%0.0
1-13Florida A&M (332.0)MEACH99-81W100%0.0
1-15Stetson (325.0)ASunA62-74W100%0.0
1-20Delaware St. (351.0)MEACA78-85W100%0.0
1-27Norfolk St. (266.0)MEACA71-70L0%0.0
1-29Hampton (237.0)MEACA80-69L0%0.0
2-3Coppin St. (343.0)MEACH80-60W100%0.0
2-5Norfolk St. (266.0)MEACH79-83L0%0.0
2-10Maryland Eastern Shore (346.0)MEACH87-67W100%0.0
2-12North Carolina Central (279.0)MEACH99-81W100%0.0
2-17Coppin St. (343.0)MEACA85-89W100%0.0
2-19Morgan St. (327.0)MEACA95-96W100%0.0
2-24Savannah St. (197.0)MEACH121-92W100%0.0
2-26North Carolina A&T (238.0)MEACH80-86L0%0.0
3-1Florida A&M (332.0)MEACA77-89W100%0.0
3-7Morgan St. (327.0)MEACN77-78L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Bethune Cookman's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


Bethune Cookman's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  Bethune Cookman.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
Bethune CookmanMEAC26.0926.0958.8258.824.604.60
Morgan St.MEAC3.983.9835.7135.71-1.14-1.14
Florida A&MMEAC3.933.9325.8125.81-1.90-1.90
Coppin St.MEAC3.903.9016.6716.67-2.60-2.60
Norfolk St.MEAC3.903.9039.2939.29-0.84-0.84
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC3.873.8717.8617.86-2.49-2.49
North Carolina CentralMEAC2.402.4053.3353.330.160.16
HamptonMEAC2.392.3950.0050.000.000.00
North Carolina A&TMEAC2.382.3854.8454.840.230.23
South Carolina St.MEAC2.342.3427.5927.59-1.05-1.05
HowardMEAC2.332.3326.6726.67-1.09-1.09
Savannah St.MEAC2.292.2944.8344.83-0.24-0.24
Delaware St.MEAC2.282.286.906.90-1.97-1.97
JacksonvilleASun1.871.8739.2939.29-0.40-0.40
Georgia TechACC1.851.8538.7138.71-0.42-0.42
Kennesaw St.ASun1.841.8425.9325.93-0.89-0.89
StetsonASun1.811.8129.6329.63-0.74-0.74
South FloridaAmer1.811.8129.0329.03-0.76-0.76
North TexasCUSA1.811.8141.3841.38-0.31-0.31
UT Rio Grande ValleyWAC1.781.7841.3841.38-0.31-0.31
WashingtonP121.751.7561.2961.290.400.40
Florida AtlanticCUSA1.751.7529.6329.63-0.71-0.71
Grambling St.SWAC1.751.7555.1755.170.180.18
Washington St.P121.721.7236.6736.67-0.46-0.46
Boston UniversityPat1.671.6744.8344.83-0.17-0.17
Cal PolyBW1.671.6725.0025.00-0.83-0.83
Grand CanyonWAC0.270.2765.6265.620.080.08
LipscombASun0.240.2468.9768.970.090.09
North FloridaASun0.230.2336.6736.67-0.06-0.06
GeorgetownBE0.220.2250.0050.000.000.00
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.210.2164.5264.520.060.06
Old DominionCUSA0.200.2078.1278.120.110.11
SeattleWAC0.190.1956.6756.670.030.03
East CarolinaAmer0.190.1933.3333.33-0.06-0.06
OregonP120.180.1864.7164.710.050.05
NJITASun0.180.1842.8642.86-0.03-0.03
USC UpstateASun0.180.1810.7110.71-0.14-0.14
FIUCUSA0.170.1737.9337.93-0.04-0.04
NavyPat0.160.1661.2961.290.040.04
RiceCUSA0.140.1417.2417.24-0.09-0.09
DuquesneA100.140.1450.0050.000.000.00
UTEPCUSA0.140.1433.3333.33-0.05-0.05
AmericanPat0.140.1420.0020.00-0.08-0.08
CaliforniaP120.130.1325.8125.81-0.07-0.07
StanfordP120.130.1354.5554.550.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.130.1365.6265.620.040.04
SouthernSWAC0.130.1341.9441.94-0.02-0.02
Oregon St.P120.130.1350.0050.000.000.00
UABCUSA0.120.1258.0658.060.020.02
CharlotteCUSA0.110.1117.8617.86-0.07-0.07
Cal St. NorthridgeBW0.110.1114.2914.29-0.08-0.08
Jackson St.SWAC0.110.1133.3333.33-0.04-0.04
UC DavisBW0.110.1166.6766.670.040.04
UCFAmer0.110.1159.3859.380.020.02
George WashingtonA100.110.1145.4545.45-0.01-0.01
SMUAmer0.110.1151.5251.520.000.00
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.110.1153.3353.330.010.01
West VirginiaB120.110.1170.5970.590.040.04
UCLAP120.110.1165.6265.620.030.03
VirginiaACC0.110.1193.9493.940.090.09
CincinnatiAmer0.110.1188.2488.240.080.08
ConnecticutAmer0.110.1143.7543.75-0.01-0.01
ColoradoP120.110.1153.1253.120.010.01
UtahP120.110.1163.3363.330.030.03
Miami FLACC0.100.1070.9770.970.040.04
Texas TechB120.090.0972.7372.730.040.04
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.090.0970.0070.000.030.03
Louisiana TechCUSA0.090.0948.3948.39-0.00-0.00
NebraskaB100.090.0968.7568.750.030.03
Tennessee TechOVC0.090.0954.8454.840.010.01
TowsonCAA0.090.0953.3353.330.010.01
UTSACUSA0.090.0953.3353.330.010.01
UC IrvineBW0.090.0948.4848.48-0.00-0.00
MarshallCUSA0.080.0869.7069.700.030.03
HawaiiBW0.080.0853.5753.570.010.01
Eastern KentuckyOVC0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
UT ArlingtonSB0.080.0860.6160.610.020.02
YaleIvy0.080.0850.0050.000.000.00
BucknellPat0.080.0873.5373.530.040.04
LehighPat0.080.0851.7251.720.000.00
Alabama St.SWAC0.080.0825.8125.81-0.04-0.04
BinghamtonAE0.080.0831.0331.03-0.03-0.03
San DiegoWCC0.080.0856.6756.670.010.01
Arkansas St.SB0.080.0830.0030.00-0.03-0.03
North Carolina St.ACC0.080.0865.6265.620.030.03
George MasonA100.080.0848.4848.48-0.00-0.00
LibertyBSth0.080.0854.8454.840.010.01
Texas SouthernSWAC0.080.0844.1244.12-0.01-0.01
Northern ArizonaBSky0.080.0813.3313.33-0.06-0.06
Green BayHorz0.080.0833.3333.33-0.03-0.03
MercerSC0.080.0853.3353.330.010.01
North Dakota St.Sum0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Boston CollegeACC0.080.0855.8855.880.010.01
UMBCAE0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
Central ConnecticutNEC0.080.0843.7543.75-0.01-0.01
ClemsonACC0.080.0871.8871.880.030.03
MemphisAmer0.080.0861.7661.760.020.02
Fort WayneSum0.060.0650.0050.000.000.00
Georgia SouthernSB0.060.0661.2961.290.010.01
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.060.0676.6776.670.030.03
Southern MissCUSA0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.060.0669.7069.700.020.02
Cal St. FullertonBW0.060.0662.0762.070.010.01
Long Beach St.BW0.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
UC RiversideBW0.060.0624.1424.14-0.03-0.03
Missouri St.MVC0.060.0653.1253.120.000.00
College of CharlestonCAA0.060.0677.4277.420.030.03
Florida St.ACC0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
Tennessee St.OVC0.060.0646.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Gardner WebbBSth0.060.0637.9337.93-0.01-0.01
IdahoBSky0.060.0668.9768.970.020.02
Alabama A&MSWAC0.060.069.689.68-0.04-0.04
Alcorn St.SWAC0.060.0625.0025.00-0.03-0.03
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.060.0640.0040.00-0.01-0.01
ArmyPat0.060.0641.3841.38-0.01-0.01
AuburnSEC0.060.0678.1278.120.030.03
Bowling GreenMAC0.060.0646.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.060.0633.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Chicago St.WAC0.060.063.333.33-0.05-0.05
ColgatePat0.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
CreightonBE0.060.0664.5264.520.020.02
DrakeMVC0.060.0648.3948.39-0.00-0.00
East Tennessee St.SC0.060.0671.8871.880.020.02
Holy CrossPat0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Iowa St.B120.060.0641.9441.94-0.01-0.01
Kent St.MAC0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
LafayettePat0.060.0630.0030.00-0.02-0.02
Little RockSB0.060.0620.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Loyola ChicagoMVC0.060.0684.3884.380.040.04
Loyola MDPat0.060.0626.6726.67-0.03-0.03
ManhattanMAAC0.060.0645.1645.16-0.01-0.01
MarylandB100.060.0658.0658.060.010.01
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.060.0612.5012.50-0.04-0.04
New Mexico St.WAC0.060.0683.3383.330.040.04
NiagaraMAAC0.060.0659.3859.380.010.01
Prairie View A&MSWAC0.060.0645.4545.45-0.01-0.01
Robert MorrisNEC0.060.0648.4848.48-0.00-0.00
St. BonaventureA100.060.0678.1278.120.030.03
Stony BrookAE0.060.0638.7138.71-0.01-0.01
Texas A&MSEC0.060.0662.5062.500.010.01
Texas A&M Corpus ChrisSlnd0.060.0630.7730.77-0.02-0.02
UMKCWAC0.060.0627.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Utah ValleyWAC0.060.0665.5265.520.020.02
Wright St.Horz0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.050.0532.0032.00-0.02-0.02
PennIvy0.050.0574.1974.190.030.03
William & MaryCAA0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
ElonCAA0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
PittsburghACC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.03-0.03
PresbyterianBSth0.050.0527.5927.59-0.02-0.02
Wichita St.Amer0.050.0578.1278.120.030.03
RiderMAAC0.050.0570.9770.970.020.02
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.050.0541.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Appalachian St.SB0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
ArizonaP120.050.0579.4179.410.030.03
Arizona St.P120.050.0564.5264.520.020.02
Eastern MichiganMAC0.050.0558.6258.620.010.01
GonzagaWCC0.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
IndianaB100.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
USCP120.050.0567.6567.650.020.02
Cleveland St.Horz0.050.0532.3532.35-0.02-0.02
HoustonAmer0.050.0578.7978.790.030.03
Notre DameACC0.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
OhioMAC0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Penn St.B100.050.0561.7661.760.010.01
RutgersB100.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
TulaneAmer0.050.0545.1645.16-0.01-0.01
TulsaAmer0.050.0561.2961.290.010.01
Wake ForestACC0.050.0535.4835.48-0.02-0.02
Ball St.MAC0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
FordhamA100.050.0529.0329.03-0.02-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
Murray St.OVC0.050.0582.7682.760.030.03
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.050.0580.0080.000.030.03
TexasB120.050.0557.5857.580.010.01
UNLVMWC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
ButlerBE0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
CampbellBSth0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
HofstraCAA0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01
MaristMAAC0.030.0319.3519.35-0.02-0.02
MinnesotaB100.030.0346.8846.88-0.00-0.00
Northern IllinoisMAC0.030.0336.6736.67-0.01-0.01
SamfordSC0.030.0326.6726.67-0.01-0.01
SIU EdwardsvilleOVC0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
South AlabamaSB0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Central MichiganMAC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
FairfieldMAAC0.030.0351.5251.520.000.00
Fresno St.MWC0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
MichiganB100.030.0379.4179.410.020.02
MilwaukeeHorz0.030.0348.3948.39-0.00-0.00
PepperdineWCC0.030.0316.1316.13-0.02-0.02
PrincetonIvy0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
Santa ClaraWCC0.030.0334.4834.48-0.01-0.01
AlbanyAE0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
BaylorB120.030.0354.8454.840.000.00
Central ArkansasSlnd0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Charleston SouthernBSth0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
DelawareCAA0.030.0338.7138.71-0.01-0.01
DePaulBE0.030.0335.4835.48-0.01-0.01
FurmanSC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
HarvardIvy0.030.0356.6756.670.000.00
Indiana St.MVC0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
IowaB100.030.0342.4242.42-0.00-0.00
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.030.0380.6580.650.020.02
Louisiana MonroeSB0.030.0346.4346.43-0.00-0.00
MaineAE0.030.0313.3313.33-0.02-0.02
Michigan St.B100.030.0387.8887.880.020.02
New HampshireAE0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Nicholls St.Slnd0.030.0360.7160.710.010.01
NortheasternCAA0.030.0368.7568.750.010.01
OklahomaB120.030.0358.0658.060.000.00
Oklahoma St.B120.030.0357.5857.580.000.00
South DakotaSum0.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
Southeastern LouisianaSlnd0.030.0363.3363.330.010.01
Texas St.SB0.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
TroySB0.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
UMass LowellAE0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
VCUA100.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
WinthropBSth0.030.0357.1457.140.000.00
WisconsinB100.030.0345.4545.45-0.00-0.00
Coastal CarolinaSB0.030.0337.9337.93-0.01-0.01
EvansvilleMVC0.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Idaho St.BSky0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
IllinoisB100.030.0341.9441.94-0.00-0.00
IUPUIHorz0.030.0332.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Kansas St.B120.030.0366.6766.670.010.01
Saint Joseph'sA100.030.0350.0050.000.000.00
Saint Mary'sWCC0.030.0384.8584.850.020.02
San Diego St.MWC0.030.0367.7467.740.010.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.030.0330.0030.00-0.01-0.01
XavierBE0.030.0384.8584.850.020.02
BelmontOVC0.030.0372.7372.730.010.01
DukeACC0.030.0378.7978.790.010.01
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
GeorgiaSEC0.030.0354.5554.550.000.00
KansasB120.030.0379.4179.410.020.02
LamarSlnd0.030.0353.5753.570.000.00
LouisvilleACC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
MontanaBSky0.030.0377.4277.420.010.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.030.0324.1424.14-0.01-0.01
North CarolinaACC0.030.0371.4371.430.010.01
NorthwesternB100.030.0345.1645.16-0.00-0.00
ProvidenceBE0.030.0361.7661.760.010.01
RadfordBSth0.030.0362.5062.500.010.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
SyracuseACC0.030.0360.6160.610.010.01
TempleAmer0.030.0353.1253.120.000.00
TennesseeSEC0.030.0375.7675.760.010.01
The CitadelSC0.030.0327.5927.59-0.01-0.01
WoffordSC0.030.0360.0060.000.010.01